Prognostic nomogram for external ear melanoma patients in the elderly: a SEER-based study

作者全名："Gong, Xue; Zhang, Yang; Yuan, Meng; Wang, Ying; Xia, Chunna; Wang, Yanqing; Liu, Xiaozhu; Ling, Tao"

作者地址："[Gong, Xue] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Plast Surg & Burn, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Yang] Chongqing Med Univ, Coll Med Informat, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Yuan, Meng] Chongqing Med Univ, Clin Coll 2, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Wang, Ying; Xia, Chunna; Wang, Yanqing] Chongqing Med Univ, Clin Coll 1, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xiaozhu] Suqian First Hosp, Dept Pharm, Suqian 223800, Peoples R China; [Ling, Tao] Capital Med Univ, Beijing Shijitan Hosp, Dept Crit Care Med, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Liu, XZ (通讯作者)，Suqian First Hosp, Dept Pharm, Suqian 223800, Peoples R China.; Ling, T (通讯作者)，Capital Med Univ, Beijing Shijitan Hosp, Dept Crit Care Med, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China."

来源：JOURNAL OF CANCER RESEARCH AND CLINICAL ONCOLOGY

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:001026406700008

JCR分区：Q3

影响因子：2.7

年份：2023

卷号：　

期号：　

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article; Early Access

关键词：Nomogram; SEER; External ear melanoma; Elderly; Overall survival

摘要："AimThe aim of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) in external ear melanoma (EEM) patients in the elderly based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.MethodsThe information of patients diagnosed with EEM in the elderly between 2010 and 2014 was downloaded from the SEER database. Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses were carried out to identify the independent characteristics, and the independent factors were further included to construct a nomogram. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram to predict OS were tested using C-index value, and calibration plots. Based on the risk score of the nomogram, the patients were divided into high- and low-risk subgroup. Finally, the survival differences of different subgroups were explored by Kaplan-Meier curves. All statistical analyses were performed by R 4.2.0.ResultsA total of 710 elderly EMM patients were included and randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort. Univariable Cox regression were used to identify age, race, sex, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), T, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and tumor size as independent risk factors. Then, multivariable Cox model to determine significant risk factors was used to establish the selected factors. A nomogram for predicting the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS was constructed using the independent variables including age, AJCC, T, surgery and chemotherapy. The C-index values were 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in training set and 0.72 (95% CI 0.66-0.78) in validation set. The calibration curves were closer to ideal curves indicated the accurate predictive ability of this nomogram. The elderly patients with EEM in the low-risk group showed a longer OS than patients in the high-risk group in both training and validation cohorts.ConclusionsOur study established and validated a novel model to predict 1-, 3- and 5-year OS for EEM. The individualized nomogram has a good prognostic ability and can be used as a new survival prediction tool for the elderly patients with EMM."

基金机构：Shiyao Special Research Foundation of Jiangsu Research Hospital Society [JY202230]

基金资助正文：This work was supported by Shiyao Special Research Foundation of Jiangsu Research Hospital Society (JY202230).