Establishment and validation of nomograms to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival for non-metastatic bladder cancer patients: A large population-based cohort study and external validation

作者全名："Li, Shan; Wang, Jinkui; Zhang, Zhaoxia; Wu, Yuzhou; Liu, Zhenyu; Yin, Zhikang; Liu, Junhong; He, Dawei"

作者地址："[Li, Shan; Wang, Jinkui; Zhang, Zhaoxia; Liu, Junhong; He, Dawei] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Dept Urol, Zhongshan 2nd Rd 136, Chongqing 400014, Peoples R China; [Li, Shan; Wang, Jinkui; Zhang, Zhaoxia; Liu, Junhong; He, Dawei] Chongqing Key Lab Children Urogenital Dev & Tissue, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Li, Shan; Wang, Jinkui; Zhang, Zhaoxia; Liu, Junhong; He, Dawei] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Chongqing Key Lab Pediat, Minist Educ,Key Lab Child Dev & Disorders,Natl Cli, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Wu, Yuzhou; Liu, Zhenyu; Yin, Zhikang] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Urol, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Liu, JH (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Dept Urol, Zhongshan 2nd Rd 136, Chongqing 400014, Peoples R China."

来源：MEDICINE

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:001186143600065

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：1.3

年份：2024

卷号：103

期号：11

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：bladder cancer; CSS; nomogram; OS; prognostic prediction; SEER

摘要："This study aimed to develop nomograms to accurately predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of non-metastatic bladder cancer (BC) patients. Clinicopathological information of 260,412 non-metastatic BC patients was downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2000 to 2020. LASSO method and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were utilized to discover the independent risk factors, which were used to develop nomograms. The accuracy and discrimination of models were tested by the consistency index (C-index), the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical value of nomograms compared with the TNM staging system. Nomograms predicting OS and CSS were constructed after identifying independent prognostic factors. The C-index of the training, internal validation and external validation cohort for OS was 0.722 (95%CI: 0.720-0.724), 0.723 (95%CI: 0.721-0.725) and 0.744 (95%CI: 0.677-0.811). The C-index of the training, internal validation and external validation cohort for CSS was 0.794 (95%CI: 0.792-0.796), 0.793 (95%CI: 0.789-0.797) and 0.879 (95%CI: 0.814-0.944). The AUC and the calibration curves showed good accuracy and discriminability. The DCA showed favorable clinical potential value of nomograms. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test uncovered statistically significance survival difference between high- and low-risk groups. We developed nomograms to predict OS and CSS for non-metastatic BC patients. The models have been internally and externally validated with accuracy and discrimination and can assist clinicians to make better clinical decisions."

基金机构：Special Key Project of Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development [cstc2019jscx-msxmX0142]

基金资助正文：This work was supported by Special Key Project of Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development (No. cstc2019jscx-msxmX0142).This manuscript has no published elsewhere previously in form of abstract or full text.