Seasonality of influenza-like illness and short-term forecasting model in Chongqing from 2010 to 2022

作者全名：Chen, Huayong; Xiao, Mimi

作者地址：[Chen, Huayong; Xiao, Mimi] Chongqing Med Univ, Res Ctr Med & Social Dev, Sch Publ Hlth, 1 Yixueyuan Rd, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China

通信作者：Xiao, MM (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Res Ctr Med & Social Dev, Sch Publ Hlth, 1 Yixueyuan Rd, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China.

来源：BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

ESI学科分类：IMMUNOLOGY

WOS号：WOS:001207220100002

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.4

年份：2024

卷号：24

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Influenza-like illnesses (ILI); Time series; Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average with eXogenous factors (SARIMAX); Forecast

摘要：Background Influenza-like illness (ILI) imposes a significant burden on patients, employers and society. However, there is no analysis and prediction at the hospital level in Chongqing. We aimed to characterize the seasonality of ILI, examine age heterogeneity in visits, and predict ILI peaks and assess whether they affect hospital operations.Methods The multiplicative decomposition model was employed to decompose the trend and seasonality of ILI, and the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) model was used for the trend and short-term prediction of ILI. We used Grid Search and Akaike information criterion (AIC) to calibrate and verify the optimal hyperparameters, and verified the residuals of the multiplicative decomposition and SARIMAX model, which are both white noise.Results During the 12-year study period, ILI showed a continuous upward trend, peaking in winter (Dec. - Jan.) and a small spike in May-June in the 2-4-year-old high-risk group for severe disease. The mean length of stay (LOS) in ILI peaked around summer (about Aug.), and the LOS in the 0-1 and >= 65 years old severely high-risk group was more irregular than the others. We found some anomalies in the predictive analysis of the test set, which were basically consistent with the dynamic zero-COVID policy at the time.Conclusion The ILI patient visits showed a clear cyclical and seasonal pattern. ILI prevention and control activities can be conducted seasonally on an annual basis, and age heterogeneity should be considered in the health resource planning. Targeted immunization policies are essential to mitigate potential pandemic threats. The SARIMAX model has good short-term forecasting ability and accuracy. It can help explore the epidemiological characteristics of ILI and provide an early warning and decision-making basis for the allocation of medical resources related to ILI visits.

基金机构：Humanities and Social Sciences Research Project of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission

基金资助正文：Thanks to YiDuCloud for all the data.