A nomogram based on CHADS(2) score for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after cryoballoon ablation

作者全名："Liu, Yu; Tian, Youpeng; Fan, Jinqi; Xu, Yanping; Chen, Yun-Lin; Yin, Yuehui"

作者地址："[Liu, Yu; Tian, Youpeng; Xu, Yanping; Chen, Yun-Lin; Yin, Yuehui] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 2, Dept Cardiol, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Fan, Jinqi] Emory Univ, Dept Biomed Engn & Pediat, Atlanta, GA USA"

通信作者："Chen, YL; Yin, YH (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 2, 74 Linjiang Rd, Chongqing 400010, Peoples R China."

来源：JOURNAL OF CARDIAC SURGERY

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000880538700001

JCR分区：Q3

影响因子：1.6

年份：2022

卷号：　

期号：　

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article; Early Access

关键词：albumin-to-globulin ratio; atrial fibrillation recurrence; CHADS(2); cryoballoon ablation; nomogram

摘要："Background As reported, CHADS(2) scoring system moderately predicts the atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence, a common event after cryoballoon ablation. We aimed to improve the diagnostic accuracy of the CHADS(2) score by adding several routine auxiliary detection indicators into the scoring system and constructing a CHADS(2) score-based nomogram to predict AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF undergoing cryoballoon ablation. Methods Eighty-four patients with paroxysmal AF undergoing cryoballoon ablation were enrolled. Baseline characteristics were collected. The multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the significantly related predictors of recurrence and to construct the nomogram whose performance was evaluated by the discrimination and calibration tests. Results Thirty-five patients developed AF recurrence after a mean follow up of 19.0 +/- 15.77 months. In the Cox multivariate model, CHADS(2) (>2) (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.38; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14-4.98, p = .021) and albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) (HR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.26-4.92, p < .008) were independent risk factors associated with AF recurrence. In addition to CHADS(2), AGR and red blood cell distribution width were used to construct the nomogram. As a result, the discrimination of the concordance index for the predictive model of AF recurrence was increased from 0.56 (95% CI: 0.494-0.632) to 0.712 (95% CI: 0.631-0.811). The 24-month one well matched the ideal 45 degrees line among the calibration plots for 6, 12, and 24 months' recurrence-free survival. Conclusion This novel easy-to-use CHADS(2) score-based nomogram may be used to predict AF recurrence for patient of paroxysmal AF undergoing cryoballoon ablation. Further external validation is still needed."

基金机构：Young Talents Project of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University [13-004-010]

基金资助正文：This work was supported by the Young Talents Project of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University under Grant No.13-004-010.