Nonlinear association between changes in fasting plasma glucose and the incidence of diabetes in a nondiabetic Chinese cohort

作者全名："Huang, Chenghu; Ren, Chenhong; Xuan, Xiuping; Luo, Yi; Peng, Caibi"

作者地址："[Huang, Chenghu; Luo, Yi; Peng, Caibi] Chongqing Med Univ, Bishan Hosp Chongqing, Dept Endocrinol, Bishan Hosp, Chongqing 402760, Peoples R China; [Ren, Chenhong] Hubei Univ Med, Jinzhou Med Univ, Taihe Hosp, Postgrad Training Basement, Shiyan 442400, Peoples R China; [Xuan, Xiuping] Guangxi Med Univ, Dept Endocrinol, Affiliated Hosp 1, Nanning 530021, Peoples R China; [Peng, Caibi] Bishan Matern & Child Hosp Chongqing, Chongqing 402760, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Peng, CB (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Bishan Hosp Chongqing, Dept Endocrinol, Bishan Hosp, Chongqing 402760, Peoples R China.; Peng, CB (通讯作者)，Bishan Matern & Child Hosp Chongqing, Chongqing 402760, Peoples R China."

来源：BMC ENDOCRINE DISORDERS

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000831216400002

JCR分区：Q4

影响因子：2.7

年份：2022

卷号：22

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Fasting plasma glucose; Change; Incidence; Diabetes; China

摘要："Background Limited data show that changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG changes) are related to the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to correlate FPG changes with incident diabetes and evaluate FPG changes as a marker to screen participants at high risk of T2D in China. Methods A total of 116,816 individuals were followed during a median follow-up of 3.10 years by secondary analysis in a nondiabetic Chinese cohort. The turning points were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Hazard ratios (HRs) were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. Results A total of 2669 cases of T2D were identified (788 women and 1881 men). The age-standardized incidence of diabetes was 12.87 per 1000 person-years (women: 11.04; men: 14.69). A nonlinear relationship between FPG changes and incident diabetes is shown by the fitting curves. The curves were categorized into three stages by two turning points (-0.04 and 1.25 mmol/L) and conformed to the hook-like pattern: an initial decrease (stage-1), then a transient sharp elevation (stage-2), followed by a slow increase (stage-3). HRs per SD of FPG changes on incident diabetes varied with stage: stage-1: 0.16 (0.12, 0.23), stage-2: 0.20 (0.15, 0.28) and stage-3: 0.22 (0.16, 0.31). Compared with stage-1, the HR in stage-3 was significantly higher at 28.05 (23.99, 32.79), while the increase in stage-2 was slight at 2.16 (1.79, 2.61), and the HR in stage-3 rose to 30.09 (25.02, 36.19). Conclusions FPG changes had a strong correlation with the incidence of T2D and was a steady indicator that was used to distinguish the participants at high risk of diabetes."

基金机构：natural science foundation of Hubei provincial department of education [D20182104]; scientific and technological project of Shiyan City of Hubei Province [16K67]; initial project for post-graduates of Hubei University of Medicine [2016QDJZR08]

基金资助正文："The present study was supported by grants provided by the natural science foundation of Hubei provincial department of education (D20182104), the scientific and technological project of Shiyan City of Hubei Province (16K67) and the initial project for post-graduates of Hubei University of Medicine (2016QDJZR08). All authors declare: no financial support from any organisation for the submitted work other than those listed above; no financial relationship with any companies that might have an interest in the submitted work; no non-financial interests or relationships that may be relevant to the submitted work."