Development and validation of a prediction model to predict school-age asthma in preschool children

作者全名："Zhao, Yan; Patel, Jenil; Xu, Ximing; Zhang, Guangli; Li, Qinyuan; Yi, Liangqin; Luo, Zhengxiu"

作者地址："[Zhao, Yan; Xu, Ximing; Zhang, Guangli; Li, Qinyuan; Yi, Liangqin; Luo, Zhengxiu] Natl Clin Res Ctr Child Hlth & Disorders, Minist Educ Key Lab Child Dev & Disorders, Chongqing Key Lab Pediat, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Yan; Zhang, Guangli] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Dept Resp Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Patel, Jenil] Univ Texas Hlth Sci Ctr Houston, UTHealth Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Human Genet & Environm Sci, Dallas, TX USA; [Xu, Ximing] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Big Data Ctr Childrens Med Care, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Luo, Zhengxiu] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Minist Educ Key Lab Child Dev & Disorders, Natl Clin Res Ctr Child Hlth & Disorders,Dept Resp, 136 Zhongshan2nd Rd,, Chongqing 400010, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Luo, ZX (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Minist Educ Key Lab Child Dev & Disorders, Natl Clin Res Ctr Child Hlth & Disorders,Dept Resp, 136 Zhongshan2nd Rd,, Chongqing 400010, Peoples R China."

来源：PEDIATRIC PULMONOLOGY

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000939639000001

JCR分区：Q1

影响因子：2.7

年份：2023

卷号：58

期号：5

开始页：1391

结束页：1400

文献类型：Article

关键词：childhood asthma; nomogram; prediction model; preschool age; prognosis; school-age; web-based calculator

摘要："ObjectiveTo develop and validate a clinical prediction model to identify school-age asthma in preschool asthmatic children. Study DesignIn this retrospective prognosis cohort study, asthmatic children aged 3-5 years were enrolled with at least 2 years of follow-up, and their potential variables at baseline and the prognosis of school-age asthma were collected from medical records. A clinical prediction model was developed using Logistic regression. The performance of prediction model was assessed and quantified by discrimination of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration of Brier score. The model was validated by the temporal-validation method. ResultsIn the development dataset, 2748 preschool asthmatic children were included for model development, and 883 (32.13%) children were translated to school-age asthma. The independent prognostic variables with an increased risk for school-age asthma were used to develop the prediction model, including: age, parental asthma, early frequent wheezing, allergic rhinitis, eczema, allergic conjunctivitis, obesity, and aeroallergen of dust mite. While assessing model performance, the discrimination power of AUC was moderate [0.788 (0.770-0.805)] with sensitivity (81.5%) and specificity (60.9%), and the calibration of Brier score was 0.169, supporting the calibration ability. In the temporal-validation dataset of 583 preschool asthmatic children, our model showed satisfactory discrimination (AUC 0.818) and calibration (Brier score 0.150). The prediction model was presented by the web-based calculator () and a nomogram for clinical application. ConclusionIn preschool asthmatic children, our prediction model could be used to predict the risk of school-age asthma."

基金机构："General Project from National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders (Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China) [NCRCCHD-2020-GP-05]; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders [NCRCCHD-2021-YP-01]; Youth Project from National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders; [GBRP-202112]"

基金资助正文："The authors appreciate all of the participants in this study. The authors thank Dr Yuanyuan Li and Dr Zhili Wang for their scientific suggestions. This study was supported by grants from the General Project from National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders (Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China) (NCRCCHD-2020-GP-05), the Youth Project from National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders (NCRCCHD-2021-YP-01) and the General Basic Research Project from the Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders (No. GBRP-202112)."