"A Spatio-temporal Bayesian model to estimate risk and influencing factors related to tuberculosis in Chongqing, China, 2014-2020"

作者全名："Chen, Zhi-Yi; Deng, Xin-Yi; Zou, Yang; He, Ying; Chen, Sai-Juan; Wang, Qiu-Ting; Xing, Dian-Guo; Zhang, Yan"

作者地址："[Chen, Zhi-Yi; Deng, Xin-Yi; Zou, Yang; He, Ying; Chen, Sai-Juan; Wang, Qiu-Ting; Zhang, Yan] Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Chen, Zhi-Yi; Deng, Xin-Yi; Zou, Yang; He, Ying; Chen, Sai-Juan; Wang, Qiu-Ting; Zhang, Yan] Chongqing Med Univ, Res Ctr Med & Social Dev, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Chen, Zhi-Yi; Deng, Xin-Yi; Zou, Yang; He, Ying; Chen, Sai-Juan; Wang, Qiu-Ting; Zhang, Yan] Chongqing Med Univ, Innovat Ctr Social Risk Governance Hlth, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Chen, Zhi-Yi; Deng, Xin-Yi; Zou, Yang; He, Ying; Chen, Sai-Juan; Wang, Qiu-Ting; Zhang, Yan] Chongqing Med Univ, Res Ctr Publ Hlth Secur, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Xing, Dian-Guo] Chongqing Municipal Hlth Commiss, Off Hlth Emergency, 6, Qilong Rd, Chongqing 401147, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Zhang, Y (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China.; Zhang, Y (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Res Ctr Med & Social Dev, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China.; Zhang, Y (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Innovat Ctr Social Risk Governance Hlth, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China.; Zhang, Y (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Res Ctr Publ Hlth Secur, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China.; Xing, DG (通讯作者)，Chongqing Municipal Hlth Commiss, Off Hlth Emergency, 6, Qilong Rd, Chongqing 401147, Peoples R China."

来源：ARCHIVES OF PUBLIC HEALTH

ESI学科分类：SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL

WOS号：WOS:000950987700001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.2

年份：2023

卷号：81

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Tuberculosis (TB); Bayesian Spatio-temporal model; Temporal trend; Spatial effect

摘要："BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease that is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and potential influencing factors of TB incidence risk, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of TB.MethodsWe collected reported cases of TB in 38 districts and counties in Chongqing from 2014 to 2020 and data on environment, population characteristics and economic factors during the same period. By constructing a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, we explored the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of TB incidence risk and potential influencing factors, identified key areas and key populations affected by TB, compared the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of TB in populations with different characteristics, and explored the differences in the influence of various social and environmental factors.ResultsThe high-risk areas for TB incidence in Chongqing from 2014 to 2020 were mainly concentrated in southeastern and northeastern regions of Chongqing, and the overall relative risk (RR) of TB showed a decreasing trend during the study period, while RR of TB in main urban area and southeast of Chongqing showed an increasing trend. The RR of TB was relatively high in the main urban area for the female population and the population aged 0-29 years, and the RR of TB for the population aged 30-44 years in the main urban area and the population aged 60 years or older in southeast of Chongqing had an increasing trend, respectively. For each 1 mu g/m(3) increase in SO2 and 1% increase in the number of low-income per 1000 non-agricultural households (LINA per 1000 persons), the RR of TB increased by 0.35% (95% CI: 0.08-0.61%) and 0.07% (95% CI: 0.05-0.10%), respectively. And LINA per 1000 persons had the greatest impact on the female population and the over 60 years old age group. Although each 1% increase in urbanization rate (UR) was associated with 0.15% (95% CI: 0.11-0.17%) reduction in the RR of TB in the whole population, the RR increased by 0.18% (95% CI: 0.16-0.21%) in the female population and 0.37% (95% CI: 0.34-0.45%) in the 0-29 age group.ConclusionThis study showed that high-risk areas for TB were concentrated in the southeastern and northeastern regions of Chongqing, and that the elderly population was a key population for TB incidence. There were spatial and temporal differences in the incidence of TB in populations with different characteristics, and various socio-environmental factors had different effects on different populations. Local governments should focus on areas and populations at high risk of TB and develop targeted prevention interventions based on the characteristics of different populations."

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