Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis

作者全名："Li, Weibo; Zhang, Chen; Li, Wenli; Qin, Fanyue; Gao, Xiang; Xu, Falin"

作者地址："[Li, Weibo; Zhang, Chen; Li, Wenli; Qin, Fanyue; Xu, Falin] Zhengzhou Univ, Dept Neonatol, Affiliated Hosp 3, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China; [Li, Weibo; Zhang, Chen; Li, Wenli; Qin, Fanyue; Xu, Falin] Zhengzhou Univ, Branch Ctr Affiliated Hosp 3, Adv Med Res Ctr, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China; [Gao, Xiang] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Xu, FL (通讯作者)，Zhengzhou Univ, Dept Neonatol, Affiliated Hosp 3, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China.; Xu, FL (通讯作者)，Zhengzhou Univ, Branch Ctr Affiliated Hosp 3, Adv Med Res Ctr, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China."

来源：PEDIATRIC SURGERY INTERNATIONAL

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000953683900001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：1.5

年份：2023

卷号：39

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis; Predictive model; Nomogram; Neonate; Hematological counts

摘要："BackgroundFulminant necrotizing enterocolitis (FNEC) is the most serious subtype of NEC and has a high mortality rate and a high incidence of sequelae. Onset prediction can help in the establishment of a customized treatment strategy. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a predictive nomogram for FNEC.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective observation to study the clinical data of neonates diagnosed with NEC (Bell stage >= IIB). Neonates were divided into the FNEC and NEC groups. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram model. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using area under the curve, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis.ResultsA total of 206 neonate cases were included, among which 40 (19.4%) fulfilled the definition of FNEC. The identified predictors were assisted ventilation after NEC onset; shock at NEC onset; feeding volumes before NEC onset; neutrophil counts on the day of NEC onset; and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts on day 1 after NEC onset. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.884 (95% CI 0.825-0.943). The predictive model was well calibrated. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of this nomogram.ConclusionA nomogram with a potentially effective application was developed to facilitate the individualized prediction of FNEC, with the hope of providing further direction for the early diagnosis of FNEC and timing of intervention."

基金机构：Advanced Medical Research Center of Zhengzhou University

基金资助正文：Funded by Advanced Medical Research Center of Zhengzhou University.