Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in nonsurgically treated elderly patients with prostate cancer

作者全名："Zhang, Zhaoxia; Cai, Qian; Wang, Jinkui; Yao, Zhigang; Ji, Fengming; Hang, Yu; Ma, Jing; Jiang, Hongchao; Yan, Bing; Zhanghuang, Chenghao"

作者地址："[Yao, Zhigang; Ji, Fengming; Hang, Yu; Yan, Bing; Zhanghuang, Chenghao] Kunming Med Univ, Dept Urol, Kunming Childrens Hosp, Childrens Hosp, 288 Qianxing Rd, Kunming 650228, Yunnan, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Zhaoxia; Wang, Jinkui; Zhanghuang, Chenghao] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Urol,Minist Educ Key Lab Child Dev & Disorde, Natl Clin Res Ctr Child Hlth & Disorders,China In, Chongqing Key Lab Pediat,Childrens Hosp,Higher In, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Cai, Qian] Yunnan Univ, Affiliated Hosp, Dept Urol, Ophthalm Hosp Yunnan Prov,Peoples Hosp Yunnan Pro, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China; [Ma, Jing; Yan, Bing; Zhanghuang, Chenghao] Kunming Med Univ, Yunnan Prov Clin Res Ctr Childrens Hlth & Dis, Yunnan Key Lab Childrens Major Dis Res, Kunming Childrens Hosp,Childrens Hosp, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China; [Jiang, Hongchao] Kunming Med Univ, Sci & Educ Dept, Kunming Childrens Hosp, Childrens Hosp, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Yan, B; Zhanghuang, CH (通讯作者)，Kunming Med Univ, Dept Urol, Kunming Childrens Hosp, Childrens Hosp, 288 Qianxing Rd, Kunming 650228, Yunnan, Peoples R China.; Zhanghuang, CH (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Urol,Minist Educ Key Lab Child Dev & Disorde, Natl Clin Res Ctr Child Hlth & Disorders,China In, Chongqing Key Lab Pediat,Childrens Hosp,Higher In, Chongqing, Peoples R China.; Yan, B; Zhanghuang, CH (通讯作者)，Kunming Med Univ, Yunnan Prov Clin Res Ctr Childrens Hlth & Dis, Yunnan Key Lab Childrens Major Dis Res, Kunming Childrens Hosp,Childrens Hosp, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China."

来源：SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

ESI学科分类：Multidisciplinary

WOS号：WOS:001094254900067

JCR分区：Q1

影响因子：3.8

年份：2023

卷号：13

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：　

摘要："Prostate Cancer ( PC) is the most common male nonskin tumour in the world, and most diagnosed patients are over 65 years old. The main treatment for PC includes surgical treatment and nonsurgical treatment. Currently, for nonsurgically treated elderly patients, few studies have evaluated their prognostic factors. Our aim was to construct a nomogram that could predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in nonsurgically treated elderly PC patients to assess their prognosis-related independent risk factors. Patient information was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and our target population was nonsurgically treated PC patients who were over 65 years old. Independent risk factors were determined using both univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. A nomogram was built using a multivariate Cox regression model. The accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model were tested using the consistency index (C-index), the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to examine the potential clinical value of this model. A total of 87,831 elderly PC patients with nonsurgical treatment in 2010-2018 were included in the study and were randomly assigned to the training set (N = 61,595) and the validation set (N = 26,236). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model analyses showed that age, race, marital status, TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy modality, PSA and GS were independent risk factors for predicting CSS in nonsurgically treated elderly PC patients. The C-index of the training set and the validation set was 0.894 (95% CI 0.888-0.900) and 0.897 (95% CI 0.887-0.907), respectively, indicating the good discrimination ability of the nomogram. The AUC and the calibration curves also show good accuracy and discriminability. We developed a new nomogram to predict CSS in elderly PC patients with nonsurgical treatment. The model is internally validated with good accuracy and reliability, as well as potential clinical value, and can be used for clinical aid in decision-making."

基金机构：Yunnan Education Department of Science Research Fund [2023 J0295]; Kunming City Health Science and Technology Talent "1000" training Project [2020-SW (Reserve)-112]; Kunming Health and Health Commission Health Research Project [2020-0201-001]; Science and Technology Department of Yunnan Province [202301AY070001-108]; Kunming Medical Joint Project of Yunnan Science and Technology Department [202001 AY070001-271]; Open Research Fund of Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Diseases of Yunnan Province [2022-ETYY-YJ-03]; Kunming Medical University [202301AY070001-108]

基金资助正文："This study was supported by Yunnan Education Department of Science Research Fund (No. 2023 J0295), Kunming City Health Science and Technology Talent ""1000"" training Project (No. 2020-SW (Reserve)-112), Kunming Health and Health Commission Health Research Project (No. 2020-0201-001), Joint project of Science and Technology Department of Yunnan Province and Kunming Medical University (202301AY070001-108), Kunming Medical Joint Project of Yunnan Science and Technology Department (No. 202001 AY070001-271), and Open Research Fund of Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Diseases of Yunnan Province (2022-ETYY-YJ-03).The funding bodies played no role in the study's design and collection, analysis and interpretation of data, and writing the manuscript."