"Comparison of SARIMA model, Holt-winters model and ETS model in predicting the incidence of foodborne disease"

作者全名："Xian, Xiaobing; Wang, Liang; Wu, Xiaohua; Tang, Xiaoqing; Zhai, Xingpeng; Yu, Rong; Qu, Linhan; Ye, Mengliang"

作者地址："[Xian, Xiaobing; Wang, Liang; Zhai, Xingpeng; Ye, Mengliang] Chongqing Med Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Wu, Xiaohua; Tang, Xiaoqing] Nanan Dist Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Yu, Rong] Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Tradit Chinese Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Qu, Linhan] Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Clin Coll 1, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Ye, ML (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Chongqing, Peoples R China."

来源：BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

ESI学科分类：IMMUNOLOGY

WOS号：WOS:001106170700005

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.4

年份：2023

卷号：23

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Foodborne Disease; SARIMA model; Holt-Winters model; Exponential smoothing model

摘要："BackgroundAccording to the World Health Organization, foodborne disease is a significant public health issue. We will choose the best model to predict foodborne disease by comparison, to provide evidence for government policies to prevent foodborne illness.MethodsThe foodborne disease monthly incidence data from June 2017 to April 2022 were obtained from the Chongqing Nan'an District Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Data from June 2017 to June 2021 were used to train the model, and the last 10 months of incidence were used for prediction and validation The incidence was fitted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Holt-Winters model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model. Besides, we used MSE, MAE, RMSE to determine which model fits better.ResultsDuring June 2017 to April 2022, the incidence of foodborne disease showed seasonal changes, the months with the highest incidence are June to November. The optimal model of SARIMA is SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0)12. The MSE, MAE, RMSE of the Holt-Winters model are 8.78, 2.33 and 2.96 respectively, which less than those of the SARIMA and ETS model, and its prediction curve is closer to the true value. The optimal model has good predictive performance.ConclusionBased on the results, Holt-Winters model produces better prediction accuracy of the model."

基金机构：The authors would like to thank all the participants involved in this project for their contribution and dedication sincerely.

基金资助正文：The authors would like to thank all the participants involved in this project for their contribution and dedication sincerely.