A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

作者全名："Bai, Jie; Xu, Manman; Peng, Fengling; Gong, Junwei; Song, Xiaodong; Li, Yongguo"

作者地址："[Bai, Jie; Peng, Fengling; Li, Yongguo] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Infect Dis, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Xu, Manman] Capital Med Univ, Beijing Youan Hosp, Difficult & Complicated Liver Dis & Artificial Liv, Dept Liver Dis 4, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Gong, Junwei] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Radiol, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Song, Xiaodong] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Neurol, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Li, YG (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Infect Dis, Chongqing, Peoples R China.; Song, XD (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Neurol, Chongqing, Peoples R China."

来源：SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

ESI学科分类：Multidisciplinary

WOS号：WOS:001127417200004

JCR分区：Q1

影响因子：3.8

年份：2023

卷号：13

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：　

摘要："There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related ACLF. We included 274 non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients who were randomly assigned to training and validation groups. Logistic analyses were performed to identify risk factors for cirrhosis. A nomogram was then constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). During the 360-day follow-up, 44.5% (122/274) of non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients developed cirrhosis. A higher PMI at the L3 level was correlated with a decreased risk of long-term cirrhosis occurrence (OR 0.677, 95% CI 0.518-0.885, P = 0.004). The nomogram incorporating PMI, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and international normalized ratio (INR), indicated satisfactory predictive performance for cirrhosis risk stratification in ACLF population. The nomograms had an AUROC of 0.812 (95% CI 0.747-0.866) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.730-0.896) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves displayed excellent predictive accuracy of the nomogram in both sets. In both cohorts, the DCA verified the nomogram's clinical efficacy. In non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients, a greater PMI appears to protect against long-term cirrhosis occurrence. Strong predictive performance has been demonstrated by PMI-based nomograms in assessing the likelihood of 1-year cirrhosis in those with HBV-ACLF."

基金机构：National Natural Science Foundation of China

基金资助正文：No Statement Available