Spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of human brucellosis in Mainland China from 2005-2021

作者全名："Zhang, Meng; Chen, Xinrui; Bu, Qingqing; Tan, Bo; Yang, Tong; Qing, Liyuan; Wang, Yunna; Deng, Dan"

作者地址："[Zhang, Meng; Chen, Xinrui; Bu, Qingqing; Tan, Bo; Yang, Tong; Qing, Liyuan; Wang, Yunna; Deng, Dan] Chongqing Med Univ Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Stat, Chongqing 500000, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Deng, D (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Stat, Chongqing 500000, Peoples R China."

来源：BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

ESI学科分类：IMMUNOLOGY

WOS号：WOS:001140975000001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.7

年份：2024

卷号：24

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Brucellosis; MGWR; Spatial epidemiology; Medical meteorology; Prevention; Control policy

摘要："BackgroundBrucellosis poses a significant public health concern. This study explores the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution of human brucellosis in China and analyses the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors related to the incidence of human brucellosis at the provincial level.MethodsThe Join-point model, centre of gravity migration model and spatial autocorrelation analysis were employed to evaluate potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2005 to 2021. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models were constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal correlation between the incidence rate of human brucellosis and meteorological and social factors.ResultsFrom 2005 to 2021, human brucellosis in China showed a consistent upward trend. The incidence rate rose more rapidly in South, Central, and Southwest China, leading to a shift in the center of gravity from the North to the Southwest, as illustrated in the migration trajectory diagram. Strong spatial aggregation was observed. The MGWR model outperformed others. Spatio-temporal plots indicated that lower mean annual temperatures and increased beef, mutton, and milk production significantly correlated with higher brucellosis incidence. Cities like Guangxi and Guangdong were more affected by low temperatures, while Xinjiang and Tibet were influenced more by beef and milk production. Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang were more affected by mutton production. Importantly, an increase in regional GDP and health expenditure exerted a notable protective effect against human brucellosis incidence.ConclusionsHuman brucellosis remains a pervasive challenge. Meteorological and social factors significantly influence its incidence in a spatiotemporally specific manner. Tailored prevention strategies should be region-specific, providing valuable insights for effective brucellosis control measures."

基金机构：Chongqing Science and Technology Bureau Project [CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0804]

基金资助正文：This work was supported by Chongqing Science and Technology Bureau Project (grant number: CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0804).