Collateral effects of COVID-19 countermeasures on hepatitis E incidence pattern: a case study of china based on time series models

作者全名："Qin, Yajun; Peng, Haiyang; Li, Jinhao; Gong, Jianping"

作者地址："[Qin, Yajun; Peng, Haiyang; Li, Jinhao; Gong, Jianping] Chongqing Med Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Gong, JP (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Chongqing, Peoples R China."

来源：BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

ESI学科分类：IMMUNOLOGY

WOS号：WOS:001195506100001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.4

年份：2024

卷号：24

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Hepatitis E; Incidence; COVID-19; Forecasting; Computer neural networks

摘要："Background There are abundant studies on COVID-19 but few on its impact on hepatitis E. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence and explore the application of time series models in analyzing this pattern.Methods Our pivotal idea was to fit a pre-COVID-19 model with data from before the COVID-19 outbreak and use the deviation between forecast values and actual values to reflect the effect of COVID-19 countermeasures. We analyzed the pattern of hepatitis E incidence in China from 2013 to 2018. We evaluated the fitting and forecasting capability of 3 methods before the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, we employed these methods to construct pre-COVID-19 incidence models and compare post-COVID-19 forecasts with reality.Results Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern was overall stationary and seasonal, with a peak in March, a trough in October, and higher levels in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, annually. Nevertheless, post-COVID-19 forecasts from pre-COVID-19 models were extremely different from reality in sectional periods but congruous in others.Conclusions Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern has altered substantially, and the incidence has greatly decreased. The effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence was temporary. The incidence of hepatitis E was anticipated to gradually revert to its pre-COVID-19 pattern."

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