Infectious disease spreading modeling and containing strategy in heterogeneous population

作者全名："Li, Wenjie; Li, Jiachen; Nie, Yanyi; Lin, Tao; Chen, Yu; Liu, Xiaoyang; Su, Sheng; Wang, Wei"

作者地址："[Li, Wenjie; Li, Jiachen; Nie, Yanyi; Wang, Wei] Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Nie, Yanyi; Lin, Tao] Sichuan Univ, Coll Comp Sci, Chengdu 610065, Sichuan, Peoples R China; [Chen, Yu] Sichuan Minzu Coll, Sch Intelligent Sci & Technol, Kangding 626001, Sichuan, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xiaoyang] Chongqing Univ Technol, Sch Comp Sci & Engn, Chongqing 400054, Peoples R China; [Su, Sheng] Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sch Informat & Software Engn, Chengdu 611713, Sichuan, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xiaoyang] Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Yangtze Delta Reg Inst, Huzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Wang, W (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China."

来源：CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS

ESI学科分类：PHYSICS

WOS号：WOS:001197618300001

JCR分区：Q1

影响因子：5.3

年份：2024

卷号：181

期号：　

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Infectious disease; Heterogeneous populations; Containing strategy; Contact matrix; Household infection

摘要："Individual heterogeneity (i.e., age and underlying health condition) and contact pattern heterogeneity (i.e., circumstances and frequency of contact) are two crucial aspects of heterogeneous population, which have been demonstrated markedly affect the dynamical process and effectiveness of containing strategy of infectious disease. The former primarily influences susceptibility to the disease, while the latter predominantly controls the spreading process (e.g., ""super-spreading""events often occur within households). In this study, we propose a contact data-driven infectious disease spreading model with age structure, underlying health conditions, and containing measures, as well as two types of heterogeneity-based containing strategies for heterogeneous populations. Based on this, a theoretical analysis framework is developed by extending mean-field theory. Using the next-generation matrix method, we estimate the basic reproduction number, finding it to be sensitive to individual heterogeneity, contact pattern heterogeneity, and containing measures. We perform extensive simulations for the spreading of Covid-19 and influenza in 31 cities and find that stronger household infection within contact pattern heterogeneity and the implementation of immunization both lead to a tradeoff between the final cumulative infection density (daily infection density peak) and pandemic duration. Individual heterogeneity and contact pattern heterogeneity result in uneven distribution of infection density across different age groups and affect the immunization effects of different immunization strategies. When considering the impact of individual heterogeneity, immunizing only individuals without underlying diseases within each age group is insufficient to achieve optimal control; individuals with underlying diseases should be encouraged to get vaccinated as well. When considering the impact of contact pattern heterogeneity, the results from Anhui indicate that immunizing the 40-59 age group is most effective in the early stages of the epidemic, while overall, immunizing the 20-39 age group is most effective."

基金机构："Social Science Foundation of Chongqing [2021PY53]; Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing [cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0132]; Natural Science Foundation of Yuzhong District, Chongqing [20210117]; Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission [KJQN202200429]; Program for Youth Innovation in Future Medicine, Chongqing Medical University [W0150]; Intelligent Medicine Research Project of Chongqing Medical University [ZHYX202223]"

基金资助正文："This research was supported by the Social Science Foundation of Chongqing (No. 2021PY53) , the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing (No. cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0132) , the Natural Science Foun-dation of Yuzhong District, Chongqing (No. 20210117) , the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Com-mission (No. KJQN202200429) , the Program for Youth Innovation in Future Medicine, Chongqing Medical University (No. W0150) , and the Intelligent Medicine Research Project of Chongqing Medical University (No. ZHYX202223) ."