Prognostic prediction model of colorectal cancer based on preoperative serum tumor markers

作者全名：Diao, Yu-Hang; Rao, Si-Qi; Shu, Xin-Peng; Cheng, Yong; Tan, Can; Wang, Li-Juan; Peng, Dong

作者地址：[Diao, Yu-Hang; Rao, Si-Qi; Shu, Xin-Peng; Cheng, Yong; Tan, Can; Wang, Li-Juan; Peng, Dong] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, 1 Youyi Rd, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China

通信作者：Peng, D (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, 1 Youyi Rd, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China.

来源：WORLD JOURNAL OF GASTROINTESTINAL SURGERY

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:001237308800012

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：1.8

年份：2024

卷号：16

期号：5

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Colorectal cancer; Prognosis; Carcinoembryonic antigen; Carbohydrate antigen 19-9; Nomogram

摘要：BACKGROUND<br /> Preoperative serum tumor markers not only play a role in the auxiliary diagnosis and postoperative monitoring in colorectal cancer (CRC), but also have been found to have potential prognostic value. AIM<br /> To analyze whether preoperative serum tumor markers, including carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), affect the prognosis of CRC. METHODS<br /> This was a retrospective study conducted in a single center. Patients with nonmetastatic CRC who underwent initial surgery between January 2011 and January 2020 were enrolled and divided into development site and validation site groups at a ratio of 7:3. The independent prognostic factors were screened by Cox regression analysis, and finally, a prognostic nomogram model was established. The newly developed model was tested by internal validation. RESULTS<br /> Eventually, 3526 postoperative patients with nonmetastatic CRC were included in the study. There were 2473 patients at the development site and 1056 patients at the validation site. Age (P < 0.01, HR = 1.042, 95%CI = 1.033-1.051), tumor node metastasis (TNM) classification (P < 0.01, HR = 1.938, 95%CI = 1.665-2.255), preoperative CEA (P = 0.001, HR = 1.393, 95%CI = 1.137-1.707) and CA19-9 (P < 0.01, HR = 1.948, 95%CI = 1.614-2.438) levels were considered independent prognostic factors for patients with nonmetastatic CRC and were used as variables in the nomogram model. The areas under the curve of the development and validation sites were 0.655 and 0.658, respectively. The calibration plot also showed the significant performance of the newly established nomogram. CONCLUSION<br /> We successfully constructed a nomogram model based on age, TNM stage, preoperative CEA, and CA19-9 levels to evaluate the overall survival of patients with nonmetastatic CRC.

基金机构：CQMU Program for Youth Innovation in Future Medicine [W0190]

基金资助正文：CQMU Program for Youth Innovation in Future Medicine, No. W0190.