A computed tomography-based nomogram for neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy response prediction in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
作者全名：Guo, Wen-wen; Zhou, Chuanqinyuan; Gao, Dan; Xu, Min; Gui, Yan; Zhou, Hai-ying; Chen, Tian-wu; Zhang, Xiao-ming
作者地址：[Guo, Wen-wen; Zhou, Chuanqinyuan; Gao, Dan; Xu, Min; Zhou, Hai-ying; Zhang, Xiao-ming] North Sichuan Med Coll, Med Imaging Key Lab Sichuan Prov, Affiliated Hosp, Nanchong, Sichuan, Peoples R China; [Guo, Wen-wen; Zhou, Chuanqinyuan; Gao, Dan; Xu, Min; Zhou, Hai-ying; Zhang, Xiao-ming] North Sichuan Med Coll, Dept Radiol, Affiliated Hosp, Nanchong, Sichuan, Peoples R China; [Gui, Yan] North Sichuan Med Coll, Dept Oncol, Affiliated Hosp, Nanchong, Sichuan, Peoples R China; [Chen, Tian-wu] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Radiol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China
通信作者：Chen, TW (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Radiol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China.
来源：FRONTIERS IN ONCOLOGY
ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE
WOS号：WOS:001250505700001
JCR分区：Q2
影响因子：3.5
年份：2024
卷号：14
期号：
开始页：
结束页：
文献类型：Article
关键词：esophagus; squamous cell carcinoma; immunotherapy; chemotherapy; computed tomography; nomogram
摘要：Objective: To develop a CT-based nomogram to predict the response of advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy. Methods: In this retrospective study, 158 consecutive patients with advanced ESCC receiving contrast-enhanced CT before neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy were randomized to a training cohort (TC, n = 121) and a validation cohort (VC, n = 37). Response to treatment was assessed with response evaluation criteria in solid tumors. Patients in the TC were divided into the responder (n = 69) and non-responder (n = 52) groups. For the TC, univariate analyses were performed to confirm factors associated with response prediction, and binary analyses were performed to identify independent variables to develop a nomogram. In both the TC and VC, the nomogram performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration slope, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: In the TC, univariate analysis showed that cT stage, cN stage, gross tumor volume, gross volume of all enlarged lymph nodes, and tumor length were associated with the response (all P < 0.05). Binary analysis demonstrated that cT stage, cN stage, and tumor length were independent predictors. The independent factors were imported into the R software to construct a nomogram, showing the discriminatory ability with an AUC of 0.813 (95% confidence interval: 0.735-0.890), and the calibration curve and DCA showed that the predictive ability of the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual observation. Conclusion: This study provides an accurate nomogram to predict the response of advanced ESCC to neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy.
基金机构：National Natural Science Foundation of China [82271959]; Nanchong-University Cooperative Research Project [20SXQT0329]
基金资助正文：The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The authors are grateful for the financial support given by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 82271959) and the Nanchong-University Cooperative Research Project (grant no. 20SXQT0329) for the conduct of this study.
