"Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China"

作者全名："Zhang, Hong; Su, Kun; Zhong, Xiaoni"

作者地址："[Zhang, Hong; Su, Kun; Zhong, Xiaoni] Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Management, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China; [Su, Kun] Chongqing Municipal Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chongqing 400042, Peoples R China; [Su, Kun] Chongqing Publ Hlth Med Ctr, Chongqing 400036, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Zhong, XN (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Management, Chongqing 400016, Peoples R China."

来源：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH

ESI学科分类：ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

WOS号：WOS:000808776300001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：4.614

年份：2022

卷号：19

期号：11

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：mumps; ARIMA model; multivariate time series analysis

摘要："(1) Background: To explore whether meteorological factors have an impact on the prevalence of mumps, and to make a short-term prediction of the case number of mumps in Chongqing. (2) Methods: K-means clustering algorithm was used to divide the monthly mumps cases of each year into the high and low case number clusters, and Student t-test was applied for difference analysis. The cross-correlation function (CCF) was used to evaluate the correlation between the meteorological factors and mumps, and an ARIMAX model was constructed by additionally incorporating meteorological factors as exogenous variables in the ARIMA model, and a short-term prediction was conducted for mumps in Chongqing, evaluated by MAE, RMSE. (3) Results: All the meteorological factors were significantly different (p < 0.05), except for the relative humidity between the high and low case number clusters. The CCF and ARIMAX model showed that monthly precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity were associated with mumps, and there were significant lag effects. The ARIMAX model could accurately predict mumps in the short term, and the prediction errors (MAE, RMSE) were lower than those of the ARIMA model. (4) Conclusions: Meteorological factors can affect the occurrence of mumps, and the ARIMAX model can effectively predict the incidence trend of mumps in Chongqing, which can provide an early warning for relevant departments."

基金机构：National Science and Technology Major Project "Study on the Source Spectrum and Epidemic Law of Infectious Diseases in Yunnan and Surrounding Provinces" [2017ZX10103010003]

基金资助正文："This research was supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project ""Study on the Source Spectrum and Epidemic Law of Infectious Diseases in Yunnan and Surrounding Provinces"" (funding number: 2017ZX10103010003). The funder is Xiaoni Zhong, corresponding author of this study."