The MELD-XI score predicts 3-year mortality in patients with chronic heart failure

作者全名："Lin, Zebin; Liu, Xia; Xiao, Li; Li, Yin; Qi, Chenlu; Song, Siqi; Zhao, Yiping; Zou, Lili"

作者地址："[Lin, Zebin] Xiamen Univ, Dept Geriatr, Zhongshan Hosp, Xiamen, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xia] Bengbu Med Coll, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Bengbu, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xia] Anhui Prov Key Lab Clin & Preclin Res Resp Dis, Bengbu, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xia] Clin Res Ctr Resp Dis tumor Anhui Prov, Bengbu, Anhui, Peoples R China; [Xiao, Li; Qi, Chenlu; Song, Siqi] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Gen Med, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Li, Yin] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Yiping] Univ Sci & Technol China, Dept Cardiol, Affiliated Hosp 1, Hefei, Peoples R China; [Zou, Lili] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Cardiol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Zou, LL (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Cardiol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China."

来源：FRONTIERS IN CARDIOVASCULAR MEDICINE

ESI学科分类：　

WOS号：WOS:000844340400001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.6

年份：2022

卷号：9

期号：　

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：MELD-XI score; chronic heart failure; prediction model; creatinine; bilirubin

摘要："ObjectivesThe relationship between the MELD-XI score, a modified version of the MELD score, and the long-term prognosis of hospitalized patients with chronic heart failure is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term prognostic relationship of MELD-XI score in patients with chronic heart failure. MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study of patients with chronic heart failure who were initially hospitalized in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from February 2017 to December 2017. The primary clinical outcome was all-cause mortality within 3 years. Cox regression and lasso regression were used to screen variables and build a prognostic model. Combined with the MELD-XI score, the final model was adjusted, and the predictive ability of the model was evaluated. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log rank test. ResultsA total of 400 patients with chronic heart failure were included (median age 76 years, 51.5% female). During the 3-year follow-up period, there were 97 all-cause deaths, including 63 cardiac deaths. Six characteristic variables (NT-proBNP, BUN, RDW CV, Na+ and prealbumin) were selected by univariate Cox regression and lasso regression. Survival analysis results showed that elevated MELD-XI score at baseline predicted the risk of all-cause mortality at 3 years in patients (HR 3.19, 95% CI 2.11-4.82, P < 0.001; HRadjusted 1.79, 95% CI 1.09-2.92, P = 0.020). Subgroup analysis showed that MELD-XI score still had prognostic value in the subgroup without chronic kidney disease (HR 3.30 95%CI 2.01-5.42 P < 0.001; HRadjusted 1.88 95%CI 1.06-3.35 P = 0.032, P for interaction = 0.038). ConclusionsThis study proved that the MELD-XI score at admission was related to the poor prognosis of hospitalized patients with chronic heart failure within 3 years."

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