A new prediction model for overall survival of elderly patients with solitary bone plasmacytoma: A population-based study

作者全名:"Wu, Yingying; Wei, Jiemin; Chen, Shaomei; Liu, Xiaozhu; Cao, Junyi"

作者地址:"[Wu, Yingying] Guangxi Med Univ, Dept Blood Transfus, Affiliated Hosp 2, Nanning, Peoples R China; [Wei, Jiemin] Guangxi Med Univ, Dept Hematol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Nanning, Peoples R China; [Chen, Shaomei] Guangxi Med Univ, Dept Hematol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Nanning, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xiaozhu] Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Cardiol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Cao, Junyi] First Peoples Hosp Zigong City, Dept Med Qual Control, Zigong, Peoples R China"

通信作者:"Liu, XZ (通讯作者),Chongqing Med Univ, Dept Cardiol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Chongqing, Peoples R China.; Cao, JY (通讯作者),First Peoples Hosp Zigong City, Dept Med Qual Control, Zigong, Peoples R China."

来源:FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH

ESI学科分类:SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL

WOS号:WOS:000864460900001

JCR分区:Q1

影响因子:5.2

年份:2022

卷号:10

期号: 

开始页: 

结束页: 

文献类型:Article

关键词:solitary bone plasmacytoma; elderly patients; overall survival; SEER; nomogram; online application

摘要:"BackgroundComprehensive studies on the prognosis of solitary bone plasmacytoma (SPB) are lacking, especially in elderly patients with SPB. This study aims to establish a novel nomogram and risk stratification system to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with SPB. MethodsThe data of elderly patients with SPB from 2000 to 2017 were identified in the SEER database. SPB patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 825) and validation set (n = 354). The Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors for OS in elderly SPB patients. The nomogram was established and assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), the consistency index (C-index), and the calibration plot. Patients were divided into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on the score of the nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve was used to verify the differences in overall survival among the three groups. ResultA total of 1,179 elderly patients with SPB were included in the study. Age at diagnosis, prior cancer before SPB, marital status, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors of OS. The AUC of the 3, 5, and 8-year OS in the training and validation sets were between 0.707 and 0.860. The C-index and calibration plot also indicated that the nomogram has great predictive accuracy and robustness. After risk stratification, patients in the high-risk group had the worst OS. ConclusionA novel nomogram was built to predict the OS of elderly patients with SPB. It will help clinicians formulate more reasonable and personalized treatment strategies."

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