Nomogram models to predict low fertilisation rate and total fertilisation failure in patients undergoing conventional IVF cycles

作者全名："Wang, Qiaofeng; Wan, Qi; Bu, Xiaoqing; Feng, Qian; Li, Tian; Lv, Xingyu; Meng, Xiangqian; Chen, Mingxing; Qian, Yue; Yang, Yin; Geng, Lihong; Zhong, Zhaohui; Tang, Xiaojun; Ding, Yubin"

作者地址："[Wang, Qiaofeng; Bu, Xiaoqing; Chen, Mingxing; Qian, Yue; Yang, Yin; Zhong, Zhaohui; Tang, Xiaojun; Ding, Yubin] Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Wan, Qi] Chengdu Jinjiang Hosp Womens & Childrens Hlth, Dept Reprod Med, Chengdu, Peoples R China; [Wan, Qi; Lv, Xingyu; Meng, Xiangqian; Geng, Lihong] Sichuan Univ, Dept Gynecol & Obstet, Chengdu, Peoples R China; [Feng, Qian] Chongqing City Hosp Tradit Chinese Med, Dept Gynecol, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Li, Tian] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Reprod Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Tang, XJ; Ding, YB (通讯作者)，Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing, Peoples R China."

来源：BMJ OPEN

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000892590200014

JCR分区：Q1

影响因子：2.9

年份：2022

卷号：12

期号：11

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：epidemiology; reproductive medicine; subfertility

摘要："ObjectivesTo establish visualised prediction models of low fertilisation rate (LFR) and total fertilisation failure (TFF) for patients in conventional in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles.DesignA retrospective cohort study.SettingData from August 2017 to August 2021 were collected from the electronic records of a large obstetrics and gynaecology hospital in Sichuan, China.ParticipantsA total of 11 598 eligible patients who underwent the first IVF cycles were included. All patients were randomly divided into the training group (n=8129) and the validation group (n=3469) in a 7:3 ratio.Primary outcome measureThe incidence of LFR and TFF.ResultsLogistic regressions showed that ovarian stimulation protocol, primary infertility and initial progressive sperm motility were the independent predictors of LFR, while serum luteinising hormone and P levels before human chorionic gonadotropin injection and number of oocytes retrieved were the critical predictors of TFF. And these indicators were incorporated into the nomogram models. According to the area under the curve values, the predictive ability for LFR and TFF were 0.640 and 0.899 in the training set and 0.661 and 0.876 in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curves also showed good concordance between the actual and predicted probabilities both in the training and validation group.ConclusionThe novel nomogram models provided effective methods for clinicians to predict LFR and TFF in traditional IVF cycles."

基金机构："National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFC1004400]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [81971391, 82104923, 82171664]"

基金资助正文："This work was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant number 2018YFC1004400) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers 81971391, 82104923, 82171664)."