A visualized dynamic prediction model for survival of patients with geriatric thyroid cancer: A population-based study

作者全名："Zhang, Ting-ting; Zeng, Jing; Yang, Yan; Wang, Jin-jing; Kang, Yao-jie; Zhang, Dong-he; Liu, Xiao-zhu; Chen, Kang; Wang, Xuan; Fang, Yi"

作者地址："[Zhang, Ting-ting; Zeng, Jing; Yang, Yan; Wang, Jin-jing; Kang, Yao-jie; Wang, Xuan; Fang, Yi] Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 5, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Dong-he] Chinese Peoples Liberat Army PLA Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 5, Dept Day Clin, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Liu, Xiao-zhu] Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 2, Dept Cardiol, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [Chen, Kang] Chinese Peoples Liberat Army PLA Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 1, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Wang, X; Fang, Y (通讯作者)，Chinese Peoples Liberat Army Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 5, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China.; Chen, K (通讯作者)，Chinese Peoples Liberat Army PLA Gen Hosp, Med Ctr 1, Dept Endocrinol, Beijing, Peoples R China."

来源：FRONTIERS IN ENDOCRINOLOGY

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000901393500001

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：5.2

年份：2022

卷号：13

期号：　

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：thyroid cancer; geriatric patient; nomogram; prediction model; SEER

摘要："ObjectiveThyroid cancer (TC) is a common malignancy with a poor prognosis with aging. However, no accurate predictive survival model exists for patients with geriatric TC.We aimed to establish prediction models of prognosis in elderly TC. MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathology characteristics of patients with geriatric TC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER) from 2004 to 2018. The risk predictors used to build the nomograms were derived from the Cox proportional risk regression. These nomograms were used to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with TC. The accuracy and discriminability of the new model were evaluated by the consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve. The clinical applicability value of the model was assessed using the decision curve analysis. ResultsWe used the SEER database to include 16475 patients with geriatric TC diagnosed from 2004 to 2018. The patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly sorted out on a scale of 7:3. They were classified into a training group (n = 8623) and a validation group (n = 3669). Patients with TC diagnosed in 2016-2018 were classified into external validation groups (n = 4183). The overall survival nomogram consisted of 10 variables (age, gender, marital status, histologic type, grade, TNM stage, surgery status, and tumor size). A cancer-specific survival nomogram consisted of eight factors (age, tumor size, grade, histologic type, surgery, and TNM stage). The C-index values for the training, validation, and external validation groups were 0.775 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.785-0.765), 0.776 (95% CI 0.792-0.760), and 0.895(95% CI 0.873-0.917), respectively. The overall survival was consistent with a nomogram based on the calibration curve. Besides, the decision curve analysis showed excellent clinical application value of the nomogram. Additionally, we found that surgery could improve the prognosis of patients with geriatric at high-risk (P < 0.001) but not those at low-risk (P = 0.069). ConclusionThis was the first study to construct predictive survival nomograms for patients with geriatric TC. The well-established nomograms and the actual results could guide follow-up management strategies."

基金机构：　

基金资助正文：