Risk prediction model for long-term atelectasis in children with pneumonia

作者全名："Luo, Yonghan; Wang, Yanchun; Gong, Kenan"

作者地址："[Luo, Yonghan; Wang, Yanchun] Kunming Childrens Hosp, Dept Infect Dis 2, Kunming 650000, Yunnan, Peoples R China; [Gong, Kenan] Chongqing Med Univ, Childrens Hosp, Dept Resp Dis, Chongqing, Peoples R China"

通信作者："Wang, YC (通讯作者)，Kunming Childrens Hosp, Dept Infect Dis 2, Kunming 650000, Yunnan, Peoples R China."

来源：BMC PULMONARY MEDICINE

ESI学科分类：CLINICAL MEDICINE

WOS号：WOS:000988006600002

JCR分区：Q2

影响因子：3.1

年份：2023

卷号：23

期号：1

开始页：　

结束页：　

文献类型：Article

关键词：Bronchoscopy; Prediction model; Atelectasis; Children

摘要："BackgroundThis study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for long-term atelectasis in children with pneumonia.MethodsA retrospective study of 532 children with atelectasis was performed at the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from February 2017 to March 2020. The predictive variables were screened by LASSO regression analysis and the nomogram was drawn by R software. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration chart and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and clinical utility. 1000 Bootstrap resampling was used for internal verification. ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analysis showed that clinical course before bronchoscopy, length of stay, bronchial mucus plug formation, age were independent risk factors for long-term atelectasis in children. The area under the ROC curve of nomogram was 0.857(95% CI = 0.8136 similar to 0.9006) in training set and 0.849(95% CI = 0.7848-0.9132) in the testing set. The calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram was well-fitted, and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram had good clinical utility. ConclusionsThe model based on the risk factors of long-term atelectasis in children with pneumonia has good predictive accuracy and consistency, which can provide a certain reference value for clinical prevention and treatment of long-term atelectasis in children."

基金机构：Joint project ofYunnan Science and Technology Department Kunming Medical University [202101AY070001217]; Kunming Health Science and technology personnel training project [2020(Province)-21]

基金资助正文：This work was supported by the Joint project ofYunnan Science and Technology Department Kunming Medical University(202101AY070001-217); Kunming Health Science and technology personnel training project(2020(Province)-21).